Judging from a series of economic data in October this year, the economy, investment, exports, and production are all coming out of the trough and stabilizing. However, this situation is transmitted to the heavy-duty truck industry. If it takes another three months, then the heavy-duty truck market should have a good performance around next year's Spring Festival.
In addition, although the October data is not good, the news obtained by the reporter from Shaanxi Automobile is that orders have significantly increased. On November 15th, on the day of my visit to SAIC Iveco Hongyan, 10 major clients visited within a day, all of whom were coincidental and not invited by Hongyan. The reception task for major clients has kept the senior and middle management of Hongyan, as well as the drivers of the fleet, extremely busy.
Except for signs of recovery in various data in October, the recent information obtained from various sources is mostly positive for the heavy truck market. For example, in November, the Ministry of Railways restarted bidding, which was the first time since 2010 that the Ministry had organized bidding for high-speed trains; For example, according to media reports, the cumulative national fiscal expenditure from January to October was 9273.6 billion yuan, while the fiscal expenditure budget is expected to be 124300 billion yuan. This means that as of October, there is still a budget of over 3156.4 billion yuan to be spent. In addition, this year's excess revenue of 900 billion yuan means that it is expected to spend a staggering 400 billion yuan (what a familiar 4 trillion yuan) in the last two months of this year.
I estimate that the data for the heavy-duty truck market in November and December will not be as bad as in September and October, and the heavy-duty truck market at the beginning of next year is even more worth looking forward to. When I was chatting with a dealer CEO in Dezhou, Shandong, he not only told reporters that he clearly felt the market was recovering, but also made a surprising statement: "Next year's Spring Festival, the heavy truck market may explode
Recently, the author will closely monitor various economic data and judge the possibility of a surge during next year's Spring Festival based on this.