I believe that it takes time to transition from economic data to the heavy-duty truck market.
Going back to the end of November 2010, based on various economic data, I predicted that the heavy truck market would definitely experience a significant decline in the future. As a result, in December 2010 and January and February 2011, sales still surged towards the 100000 vehicle mark. It wasn't until after March that the temperature gradually began to cool down. In fact, this is mainly due to the fact that the transmission mechanism of the economy requires time. From economic data to national decision-making takes time, from national decision-making to economic policy shifts also takes time, and further transmission to monetary and fiscal policies also takes time. Finally, increasing investment in construction, logistics transportation, and then transmitting to users and distributors, ultimately becoming orders for heavy truck enterprises, all require time.
Market recovery takes time
Based on past experience, the transmission time may be around three months. For example, at the end of October 2008, the government launched a 4 trillion yuan stimulus policy. However, the heavy truck industry showed no signs of improvement in October and November 2008, but began to improve in December. It began to recover in January 2009, experienced a crazy growth in February 2009, and reached the order of 100000 vehicles in March.
Similarly, in November 2010, according to various economic data, the author judged that the country would certainly weaken fixed assets investment and change the extremely loose monetary policy. In December of that year, the country clarified at the Central Economic Work Conference that the monetary policy would be changed to prudent, and then began a series of measures to shrink loans and investments. But the heavy truck industry remained extremely hot in December 2010 and January and February 2011, and only cooled down slightly in March, but it was still considered a fever.
Judging from a series of economic data in October this year, the economy, investment, exports, and production are all coming out of the trough and stabilizing. However, this situation is transmitted to the heavy-duty truck industry. If it takes another three months, then the heavy-duty truck market should have a good performance around next year's Spring Festival.
In addition, although the October data is not good, the news obtained by the reporter from Shaanxi Automobile is that orders have significantly increased. On November 15th, on the day of my visit to SAIC Iveco Hongyan, 10 major clients visited within a day, all of whom were coincidental and not invited by Hongyan. The reception task for major clients has kept the senior and middle management of Hongyan, as well as the drivers of the fleet, extremely busy.
Except for signs of recovery in various data in October, the recent information obtained from various sources is mostly positive for the heavy truck market. For example, in November, the Ministry of Railways restarted bidding, which was the first time since 2010 that the Ministry had organized bidding for high-speed trains; For example, according to media reports, the cumulative national fiscal expenditure from January to October was 9273.6 billion yuan, while the fiscal expenditure budget is expected to be 124300 billion yuan. This means that as of October, there is still a budget of over 3156.4 billion yuan to be spent. In addition, this year's excess revenue of 900 billion yuan means that it is expected to spend a staggering 400 billion yuan (what a familiar 4 trillion yuan) in the last two months of this year.
I estimate that the data for the heavy-duty truck market in November and December will not be as bad as in September and October, and the heavy-duty truck market at the beginning of next year is even more worth looking forward to. When I was chatting with a dealer CEO in Dezhou, Shandong, he not only told reporters that he clearly felt the market was recovering, but also made a surprising statement: "Next year's Spring Festival, the heavy truck market may explode
Recently, the author will closely monitor various economic data and judge the possibility of a surge during next year's Spring Festival based on this.